A crucial referendum

The lone referendum on the Lisbon Treaty — a substitute for the aborted Constitution for the European Union — is to be held in the Republic of Ireland. The uncertainty about the outcome of the June 12 vote, however, reflects the general democratic deficit in the entire bloc, rather than any significant euroscepticism in the Emerald country. After its accession to the EU in 1973, Ireland has in fact come a long way from being the poorest member state and its has been the outstanding success story today. Not surprisingly, its popular support for membership of the union, as per the latest Eurobarometer poll, far exceeds the EU average, and recognition of its benefits is the highest among all the states. Yet, the risk of rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the Irish and the consequent return of the EU to the political stalemate of the post-French and Dutch ‘no’ to the 2005 referenda looms large. Opinion polls suggest that support for the rival camps is crystallising slowly and that close to 50 per cent of the electorate is undecided because it has little idea about the issues at stake. There is, moreover, evidence from the first (negative) plebiscite on the Treaty of Nice in 2001, which saw a low voter turnout, that despite the overwhelming enthusiasm for the EU, an Irish ‘yes’ cannot be taken for granted in a given instance. Indeed, that treaty was eventually approved the next year after apprehensions about possible erosion of the country’s neutrality in foreign relations were addressed. Such qualified reactions are encouraging signs of genuine engagement with institutional evolution of the EU and at any rate natural from a population that has participated directly in the ratification of all major EU Treaties.

Critics of the substitute Treaty have been playing on imagined fears, among others, that Ireland’s 12.5 per cent corporate tax — the lowest rate in the EU — would be in jeopardy when rules are harmonised for the entire union. The other issue, blown out of proportion, is Ireland’s reduced representation in a smaller European Commission that would come into being in 2014. In a member-state that is predominantly in favour of closer EU integration, the damage from these distortions may be relatively small. But the failure to publicise positive aspects such as the significantly greater voice that national Parliaments would have under the new arrangement can prove far more costly in terms of the level of confidence among the smaller states in an enlarged EU. The Irish leadership should be more alive to these realities.